National Situationer Notes #1
Highlights of the Philippine National Situation, Possible Scenarios and Some Significant Details
As of July 25, 2006
Center for Strategic Studies
OUTLINE
n PRESENT SITUATION
(A) Natural Environment
(B) Economic Conditions
(C) Social Conditions
(D) Political Conditions
(E) International Contexts
Natural Environment
n Water Crisis
– 90% of the 99 watershed areas in the country are "hydrologically critical" (DENR)
– Massive destruction of the once productive forested watersheds by loggers-both legal and illegal--and uncontrolled land use from mining, overgrazing, agricultural expansion, and industrialization have contributed to water depletion
– River pollution has added to the country's water problem: the Philippine Urban Sewerage and Sanitation classifies 37 out of 418 rivers in the country as polluted while the rest were seriously polluted
– Areas most affected by the water crisis are: Metro Manila, Metro Cebu, Davao, Baguio, Angeles, Bacolod, Iloilo, Cagayan de Oro and Zamboanga
n Thinning Land Resources
– From 12 million hectares in 1960, the country has only about 5.4 M hectares of forestlands left (DENR)
– Because of deforestation, the Philippines is one of the countries hardest hit by natural disasters (flashfloods and landslides in Quezon and Aurora in 2004)
– Due to poor land use planning, several areas in the country are also prone to soil erosion and mudslides (Barangay Guinsaugon, St. Bernard, Southern Leyte in Feb 2006)
n Natural Hazards: Volcanic Eruptions
– The Philippines is in the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” where volcanic activity and earthquakes are common
– For this year, two volcanoes in the country have been active
– Mt. Bulusan eruption, Jun 2006: although has not caused fatalities (except for one due to respiratory problem) the number of families affected reached 1,114 comprising about 7,691 people
– Mt. Mayon eruption
§ Mayon’s most violent eruption, in 1814, killed more than 1,200 people and buried a town in mud; a 1993 eruption killed 79
§ At present, Mayon’s eruptions is still considered “quiet” but tremors indicate that a hazardous eruption is upcoming
§ some 3,004 families or 15,852 people will be evacuated upon a major eruption of the volcano
Economic Conditions
n Real GNP grew by 5.8% during the 1st quarter of 2006 from 2005 yearend figure of 5.6% (NSCB)
n Real GDP growth rate for the same period also rose by 5.5% from yearend 2005 rate of 5%
n However economic growth is still consumption-driven: 76% of 1st quarter 2006 GDP consists of Personal Consumption Expenditures (NSCB)
n Increase in consumption is still spurred by steady flow of OFW remittances ($11.8 B in 2005)
n Exports are still lacking : trade deficit is at $505 M as of Apr 2006 although it has significantly decreased since Apr 2005 ($867 M)
n Philippines’ external dependence is also manifest in the balance of payments which is still at negative $306 M as of yearend 2005 compared to $104 M deficit in 2004 (NSCB)
n Total outstanding public sector debt, as of Dec 2005, was P5.1 trillion (93.4% of GDP), a decrease of 4.4% from end Dec 2004 debt of P5.3 trillion; 34% of this constitutes domestic and 66% foreign debt (DOF)
n As of Jan 2006, the national government’s outstanding debt stood at P3.96 trillion, rising by 2% from the year before; that means each of the 85 million Filipinos, rich or poor, is burdened with P45,647 of the country’s debts
n Budget deficit also contributes to the high stock of debt: it represented 5.2% of GDP in 2002 (the worst since 1970), but slightly improved in 2004 when it went down to 4.6% of GDP
n From 2005 yearend budget deficit of P146.5 B or 2.7% of GDP, the government has set a lower target at P125B or 2.1% of GDP for 2006, P67B for 2007, and hopes to achieve a balanced budget by 2008
n Although government spending fell from 19.6% of GDP in 2001 to 17.5% in 2005, there is a pressing need for strengthened delivery of social services and for infrastructure that targets the poor and the vulnerable
n In order to meet demand for infrastructure spending, the government aimed to increase revenue collections when it expanded the coverage of VAT and increased the rate to 12% from 10%
n However, tax revenues have been falling short of government targets: revenues from reformed VAT (R-VAT) missed by the government’s estimate of P100 M during the first two months of 2006; and internal revenues fell short by almost P10 B from its target of P79 B as of Apr 2006
n International credit rating firms monitor R-VAT collection performance: while Moody’s has maintained its negative rating outlook on the country, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings have already lifted their outlooks to stable since R-VAT’s implementation in Nov 2005
n Other investment agencies have noted that debt burden remains unsustainable and that country’s growth performance was falling short of making significant inroads into persistent high levels of poverty and unemployment
n Mixed assessments have shown that the Philippine economic fundamentals need to be improved to provide significant economic opportunities especially to the poorest of the population
n For one, oil dependence makes the Philippines one of the more susceptible countries in the region to high global oil prices
n Since 2005, crude oil price has already increased from $49.98 per barrel to $72 per barrel due to tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria (DOE)
n At the domestic market, this translates to a price increase of unleaded gasoline from P28.93 in June 2005 to P41.74 in Jun 2006, and price increase of diesel from P27.26 to P36.24 for the same periods
n The uneven economic growth is manifested in the inability of very many Filipinos to afford basic necessities in life such as food, housing, medicine, job and education
n A survey on hunger revealed that some 2.8 M families in the country experienced having nothing to eat at least once in the past three months, as the hunger level rose to 16.9% in Mar 2006 from 16.7% in Dec 2005 (SWS)
n Although the rate of the increase could be considered insignificant, a 16.7% hunger incidence translates to 14 M people experiencing hunger
n Housing remains a grave problem with a shortage of 4.2 M units as of Oct 2005
n Lack of affordable land and housing options for the poor also means that a significantly large portion of the urban population are forced to live in informal settlements, in conditions that are illegal, insecure and environmentally degrading, and without access to toilets, water supply and electricity
n Filipinos also find basic health care needs expensive and inaccessible
n According to government statistics, 70% of the population has no regular access to lifesaving drugs
n Medicine in the Philippines is one of the most expensive in the world: 5 to 45 times higher than prices of same medicines sold in India and Pakistan
n Officials blame the situation on the pharmaceutical marketing and distribution cartel system controlled by multinational companies
n Health care professionals are also leaving the country in droves: nurses and other medical workers leave the country at the rate of 15,000 a year for better-paying jobs abroad
n From 2000 to 2004, around 5000 Filipino doctors have migrated abroad; since 2003, government-run hospitals lost 400 to 450 physicians to foreign hospitals
n In 2005, 5,000 medical doctors of the 20,000 in the Philippines were studying to be nurses, just to be able to go abroad
n The Philippines has become an exporter of qualified nurses, which has led to a nursing crisis that has already diminished the quality of hospital care and even forced the closure of a number of hospitals
n 62% of Filipinos die without being seen by a doctor or a nurse
n In Metro Manila where more than 70% of all the health facilities in the Philippines are found and 74% of the doctors practice, 59% of the people die without any medical attention
n Unemployment and underemployment rates have increased: unemployment rose from 8.1% in Jan 06 to 8.2% in Apr 06, while underemployment significantly increased from 21.3% to 25.4% (NSO)
n 2.9 M Filipinos are unemployed as of Apr 06 compared to 2.8 M unemployment level in Jan 06
n On the other hand, the number of underemployed increased to 8.4 M in Apr 06 from 6.9 M in Jan 06
n Total labor force in Apr 06 was estimated at 36 M, translating to a labor force participation rate of 64.9%
n Females dominated the population who were not in the labor force with 70.8% while males had a figure of 29.2%
n Among the total of unemployed persons, around 48.5 percent were 15-24 years old while the rest were 25 years old and over
n A PCIJ report paints a vivid picture of the unemployment/underemployment problem:
– Labor groups claim that the job crisis is the most important problem facing the nation today, with 12 M unemployed and underemployed Filipinos, an increase of 2 M in 2 years
– The working-age population is growing by 1.3 M every year
n A PCIJ report paints a vivid picture of the unemployment/underemployment problem:
– In contrast to the 2.38 jobs generated in 2005 announced on PGMA’s 6th State of the Nation Address (SONA), Alliance of Progressive Labor (APL) economist claims that only 700,000 jobs in 2005 and 780,000 jobs in the first 2 quarters of 2006 were generated
– Actual employment generation was halfway the government target of 1.5 M jobs every year and below the 1.3 M increase in the labor force
n A PCIJ report paints a vivid picture of the unemployment/underemployment problem:
– More than half of the jobs created in 2005 have been short-term and contractual or seasonal in nature (tourism, housing, infrastructure)
– 59% of working age population are employed in jobs that are less permanent, part-time, low waged or unpaid, or low-skilled
– Underemployment rate is at an 18-year high – it rose dramatically from 17.5% in 2001 to 25.4% in 2006 which is reflective of the kind of jobs that were generated over the period of time
n According to the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE), there were 4.8 million jobs left unfilled due to mismatch between skills required by industries and skills possessed by applicants
n This puts to question the quality and relevance of education to the employment needs of the country
n Out of every 100 Filipino school-children entering first grade, only 68 percent will reach grade 6; only 66 percent of them will graduate and complete their elementary education (NSO)
n Only 66 out of 100 Filipino students finish elementary schooling, just 58 of these enter high school and only 43 are able to finish secondary education
n Of the 43 students who complete high school, only 23 go on to college and only 14 graduate with a university degree
n One out of every three Filipinos between the ages of six and 24 has never received any formal education
n Functional illiteracy rate is 14%: one in 10 Filipinos aged between 10 and 64 cannot read or write at all and two in 19 Filipinos are “functionally illiterate,” which means they lack numerical skills and cannot perform addition, subtraction, multiplication or division
n In order to achieve an ideal ratio of 45 students per classroom, the government needs to build 45,000 new classrooms (DepEd)
n At present, to cope with shortage of classrooms, the government implements the "double-shifting" scheme among public schools
n There is also a shortage of more than 10,000 teachers in public schools
n The shortages can be attributed not only to the migration of teachers abroad but also to the transfer of private school students to public schools due to high cost of tuition fees
n Some 17.8 million students this year enrolled in government-run elementary and high schools, up by 5 percent over last year; only 2.2 million students enrolled in private schools
n On the other hand, teachers who have remained in the country are also questionable in terms of competence
n Only 25 percent of education graduates pass the Licensure Examinations for Teachers (LET): 25.4 percent for secondary school teachers and 24.1 percent for elementary school teachers (NSCB)
n Aside from hiring teachers, the Department of Education (DepEd) also needs to train them to provide quality education to the youth
n There is a need to look beyond aggregate economic data to grasp the real economic situation of the people
n Economic growth has relied heavily on consumption and Overseas Filipino Worker (OFW) remittances; instead of increased investment and production
n Meeting the budget deficit target is crucial in improving investor confidence in the country; however it should not be done at the expense of much needed spending on infrastructure, health and education, which should be the real priorities and determinants of wise investment
n The increase in hunger and unemployment incidence shows that despite the rise in GDP, economic growth has not provided significant opportunities and power for the larger part of the population to afford basic necessities
Social Conditions
n National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) figures released last 25 Jan 2005 showed that about 3.966 million families, almost a quarter (24.7 %) of the country’s total families, were living below the poverty line, with the annual per capita poverty threshold set at P12,267
n NSCB reports that of 2003, national poverty incidence was at 30 %
n According to 6th SONA: poverty incidence among Filipino families saw a decrease of 3 percentage points from the 27.5% revised estimate for 2000 down to 24.7% in 2003
n According to the 2003 Family Income and Expenditure Survey of the National Statistics Office (FIES), released on 12 Jan 2006: out of 16.48 M families,
– some 300,000 have annual income below P20,000
– some 3.1 M have annual income within income bracket of P20,000 to P49,999
– some 5.2 M have annual income within the income bracket of P50,000 to P99,999
– some 7.3M have incomes ranging from P100,000 to P499,999
– only 545,000 families have incomes of P500,000 and above
n However, the average income of the richest 10% of the population is 20 times higher than the poorest 10 % (2003 FIES)
n Poverty incidence in the poorest provinces of the country is much higher than the national average: in 2003, the poorest province of Zamboanga del Norte had 64.6 % while the tenth poorest province, Lanao del Norte, had 46.5 % of the population below poverty line
n BASIC SECTORS: ISSUES
– Labor
§ Clamor for higher wages to keep up with the unabated rise in prices of petroleum products and the resulting price increases for basic goods and services
§ Many companies are flagrantly skirting the labor code provision that after six months of service, a worker, whatever her/his hiring status, is automatically considered a regular worker
§ Contractualization further depresses the already very low wages of workers and decreases worker’s self-esteem
– Peasants
§ Although the number of farms increased by 4.6 % (to 4.8 M farm lands in 2002, from 4.6 M in 1991), the country’s total farm area decreased as average farm size became smaller from 2.84 hectares in 1980; 2.2 hectares per farm in 1991; 2 hectares in 2002 – due to conversion of farmlands to residential and commercial purposes (NSO)
§ Decrease in the share of agricultural production to the GDP: in 2003, agriculture share to total production was at 19.8 %; it has further decreased to 19.7 % in 2004; and 19.1 % in 2005
n BASIC SECTORS: ISSUES
– Peasants
§ Decline in agricultural productivity: by the 1990s, agricultural imports were 50 % greater than agricultural exports
§ Inability to meet global competitiveness: poor performance of Philippine agricultural sector is due more to weaknesses in the policy and institutional frameworks rather than external market factors
§ Lack of investments in agriculture: under-spending in agricultural research and development
§ Lack of mechanisms connecting agricultural products to key industries: failure to produce higher end products that would realize bigger profits for the peasants
§ Lack of adequate subsidy to the farmers: indebtedness of farmers and lack of access to affordable capital and its failure to compete with foreign crops which are cheaper and of better quality can be attributed to the government’s failure to adequately subsidize farmers
– Fisherfolk
§ Philippine fisheries systems are facing collapse or are generally overfished
§ Poverty among municipal fisherfolks: a commercial fishworker's average daily share from a commercial fishing vessel's catch is between P50 and P120, while some 50% to 75% of the net gains of a commercial fishing vessel's catch goes to the operator or owner
§ Liberalization of the fisheries sector: municipal fishers face worsening resource depletion, loss of access to resources and competition from commercial and industrial fishing vessels; many of the larger vessels are highly subsidized and come from developed countries which have bilateral relations with developing countries
– Transport
§ Diesel fuel, which is the most commonlyused fuel by public transportations, has become very expensive
§ Increases in the prices of fuel (gasoline and diesel) and its resultant increase in the price of prime commodities are causing hardships to many Filipinos
§ Securing a license, or a franchise to operate a public utility have become very expensive and very stringent documentations and regulations forces drivers and operators to fall prey to corrupt transport officials in order to have one
n Poverty is experienced by all of the basic and related sectors of the society
n The failure of the government to address the concerns of the basic and related sectors of the society, including the provision for adequate mechanisms to improve working conditions of the basic sectors have left them helpless against capitalist policies and neo-liberal rules set by GATT/WTO
n Despite the much bragged rapid economic growth at the global and regional levels, the capitalist and neo-liberal economic platforms reinforce poverty and deprive the basic and related sectors of the Philippine society of the opportunity to empower themselves and uplift their socio-economic conditions
n POLITICAL STALEMATE
– Unpopular Macapagal - Arroyo administration
§ Stalled Charter Change initiatives
– Unpopular, weak and fragmented opposition
§ Unable to overthrow or otherwise remove the Macapagal - Arroyo administration
§ Foiled destabilization efforts
Political Conditions
Macapagal – Arroyo administration:
- main groups in the administration
- Lakas – Centrist Democrats (Lakas – CD) - Liberal Party – Atienza wing
- Kabalikat ng Mamamayang Pilipino (KAMPI) - PDSP
- Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC ) - APEC, Buhay, and some other party-list groups
- has control of the House of Representatives and most of local government units, but not of the Senate, which has a strong opposition presence and in which some of the nominally administration Senators align with the opposition on many issues
(1) The opposition:
Main groupings in the opposition
- “parliamentary” political opposition
- CPP-1968 – NPA – NDF
- some military and police elements
- dominates the Philippine Senate
(a) “parliamentary” political opposition
(a) traditional opposition
§ Liberal Party – Drilon wing
§ Partido ng Demokratikong Pilipino – Laban
§ Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP)– Angara wing
§ Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP) – Lacson wing
§ Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP)
§ Nacionalista Party
§ CIBAC (and Bangon Pilipinas)
§ Reporma
§ “Hyatt 10” and allies
(b) ideological parliamentary opposition
- Reaffirmist Marxist-Leninists (Bayan Muna, Anakpawis, Gabriela) (controlled by the clandestine Reaffirmist Marxist- Leninist opposition)
- Rejectionist Marxist-Leninists (SANLAKAS, Partido Manggagawa, Anak Mindanao)
- AKBAYAN
-AKBAYAN, SANLAKAS, Partido Manggagawa, & Bangon Pilipinas are the main elements in Laban
ng Masa.
(2) clandestine Reaffirmist Marxist- Leninist opposition
- Communist Party of the Philippines – Marxism – Leninism – Mao Zedong Thought (CPP-1968)
- New People’s Army
- National Democratic Front
n military and police elements involved in pro-opposition partisan regime change effort
(a) Para sa Bayan
- headed by Brig. Gen. D. Lim
- other important figures: Col. A. Querubin,
PCSupt M. Franco
- mainly involving elements of the Scout Rangers, the Marines, the PNP SAF
(b) some elements of the Magdalo group
- headed by former Senator Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan
- mainly young AFP officers
- organized in the Katipunan ng mga Anak ng Bayan (KAB) and the Makabayang Kawal
Pilipino, also known as Mamamayang Kaisa sa Pakikibaka (MKP)
- formed alliance with the CPP-1968 – NPA, through formal negotiations with the Military
Commission of the CPP
n Efforts to break political statement: Administration
– People’s Initiative difficult to pass because:
§ Legal opposition to signature verification
§ Pattern of SC decisions on EO 464, CPR and PP 1017 not in favor
– Constituent Assembly impossible without bargaining with the Senate
– Many unaligned groups and individuals prefer Constitutional Convention as the manner of Charter Change, over administration-backed Charter Change moves
n Efforts to break political statement: Opposition
- Persistent efforts at destabilization and ouster of P G M-A:
- Recapture of five escaped Magdalo soldiers plotting to sabotage the State of the Nation Address (SONA) of the President on July 24, 2006
- Recovered from the safehouse of the Magdalo escapees were names of politicians and businessmen supporting the coup plotters
- Continued manhunt for Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan, leader of the latter group of military rebels
n Efforts to break political statement: Opposition
- Persistent efforts at destabilization and ouster of P G M-A:
- Testimony of former Ambassador Roy Señeres: mentions the involvement of politicians and businessmen such as Oscar Orbos, Renato de Villa, Senator Panfilo Lacson, Antonio “Tony Boy” Cojuangco, Felipe F. Cruz, and Iñigo Zobel in the foiled coup attempt on Feb 24, 2006
- 1st Lt. Lawrence San Juan has reaffirmed allegiance to the government and repented that the pursuit of his goals led him to negotiate with the CPP-NPA
n Efforts to break political statement: Opposition
- Opposition to Charter Change by Constituent Assembly and by People’s Initiative
- Filing of impeachment complaints against PGMA:
- Five impeachment complaints filed in Congress since Jun 2006
n “UNALIGNED” FORCES
– One Voice
§ Non-partisan citizen’s group which advocates a 5-point proposal to end the prevailing “political impasse”:
– Halting the “legally flawed” people’s initiative to amend the Constitution by appealing to the public, the President and the proponents of the project
– Holding of 2007 elections as scheduled to serve as an indirect referendum on the term of President Arroyo
n “UNALIGNED” FORCES
– One Voice
§ 5-point proposal to end the prevailing “political impasse”:
– Immediate initiation of electoral reforms
– Institution of social reform agenda
– Initiation of a collective effort to rebuild the trustworthiness of the country’s democratic institutions
n “UNALIGNED” FORCES
– One Voice
§ Key Personalities: Christian Monsod, Solita Monsod; Alfredo Benipayo; Manuel Quezon III; Bishops Oscar Cruz, Deogracias Iñiguez, Ramon Arguelles, Antonio Ledesma, Leonardo Legaspi, Orlando Quevedo and Florentino Lavarias; Raul Concepcion; Rafael Alunan; 1986 Constitutional Commission members Fely Aquino-Arroyo, Florangel Braid and Ricardo Romulo; and NAMFREL officials Maria Corazon Akol, Baltazar Endriga, Ricardo Guevara and Augusto Lagman
n “UNALIGNED” FORCES
– CBCP Pastoral Statement on July 10, 2006:
§ Elections in 2007 must not be cancelled
§ Constitutional Convention for Charter Change
§ Not inclined to favor the impeachment process because it is an unproductive political exercise
§ Calls for thorough reform of the COMELEC to restore trust in electoral process
§ Denounces extra-judicial killings by both
– alleged ultra-rightist elements in the military
– insurgents in relation to agaw-armas operations, punishing refusal or failure to pay a revolutionary tax, punishing “blood-debt to the people,” or intervention in rivalries among traditional politicians
n Extra-judicial killings: complex situation
– “Militants” (ambivalent media term for NDF- linked persons and groups)
§ Around 20 murdered from April up to present nationwide; 228 “militant” activists assassinated since 2001
– Media practitioners
§ The country is now known as the second most dangerous place for journalists after Iraq, with 79 journalists killed since 1986
§ Extra-judicial killings: complex situation
- Classification of victims
§ Persons perceived as members of groups engaged in armed rebellion against the government
§ Low-profile persons present in rebel formations or encampments who are injured in combat situations
§ Former members of rebel groups movements who have repudiated or left these movements
§ Persons who have helped the government in internal security operations, such as judges, informants
§ Extra-judicial killings: complex situation
- Classification of victims (continued)
§ Members of competitor political formations
§ Media practitioners who have offended groups or individuals in relation to political matters
§ Media practitioners who have offended groups or individuals in relation to personal matters
§ Miscellaneous personal enemies
§ Suspected criminals
n Extra-judicial killings: complex situation
- Suspected perpetrators
§ Rogue military and rogue police
§ Paramilitary forces or auxiliaries of the police
§ Relatives and friends of victims of killings by rebel forces
§ Reaffirmist Marxist-Leninists
§ Rejectionist Marxist-Leninists
§ Extreme rightist elements
§ Destabilizing politicians
§ Personal enemies of those subjected to violence
§ Extra-judicial killings: complex situation
- Suspected perpetrators (continued)
– Landowners resisting agrarian reform
– Drug traffickers
– Organized crime syndicates
– Pirates
– Mercenaries (“guns for hire”)
n Comprehensive Approach Against Insurgency
– Government, on top of previous extra-budgetary releases of P10 B, and 10-year multiyear budgeting, has released an initial amount of P1 B for the AFP to irreversibly degrade the Communist insurgency in chosen critical areas within two years
– Offensive against the NPA is a combination of security operations directed at armed adversaries, development directed at poor communities and governance initiatives directed at local governments
– The comprehensive approach includes military, political, legal, and developmental elements, and human rights education
n Comprehensive Approach Against Insurgency
- Offensives will also target communist sympathizers and financiers who give comfort to the enemy including businessmen who pay revolutionary taxes
- Interagency task forces are being established at various levels to monitor the collateral damage from the offensives; the government aims for zero civilian casualties
n PGMA’s Vision of First World Philippines
(State of the Nation Address, 24 July 2006)
- Prompting efforts to expedite the resolution of the communist insurgency is the need to establish an insurgency-free Philippines in order to attain First World nation in 20 years
- To do this, PGMA’s economic plan has three phases:
- fiscal prudence and improving revenues
- greater investments in jobs, infrastructure and education
- building up of natural assets of each region and grouping clusters into super regions
n PGMA’s Vision of First World Philippines
– Five super regions:
§ North Luzon - the agri-business quadrangle; would cover regions 1, 2 and Cordillera Administrative Region including Aurora and Nueva Ecija
§ Metro Luzon - urban beltway; would cover regions 3 (except Aurora and Nueva Ecija), 4-A, and Metro Manila
§ Central Luzon – would focus on tourism and cover regions 4-B, 5, 6, 7, and 8
n PGMA’s Vision of First World Philippines
– Five super regions:
§ Mindanao – would focus on agri-business and cover regions 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
§ Cyber-corridor - runs the length of the super-regions from Baguio to Cebu to Davao
– The enlarged groupings of the regions would boost economic and market potentials beyond what each region can generate, with economies of scale, synergies and complementation that will be more attractive to investors
n To be world-class, the Philippines will invest in five comprehensive strategies for global competitiveness:
§ Make food plentiful and affordable to keep our labor cost globally competitive
§ Reduce the cost of electricity to make our factories regionally competitive
§ Modernize infrastructure at least cost to efficiently transport goods and people
§ Mobilize, upgrade and disseminate knowledge and technologies for productivity
§ Reduce red tape in all agencies to cut business costs
n PGMA considers the outmoded Constitution as the most prohibitive red tape
n PGMA announces that there is now funds for constitutional and electoral changes; for it is time to end the dominance of imperial Manila and give more opportunities to the provinces and the people
n PGMA also expresses that a Constitutional Change will result in a better way to do politics so that those who lose elections do not make the country pay for their frustrated ambitions and that those who win the nation's mandate to govern can work without delay and whimsical obstruction
n The political impasse that impedes efforts to radically improve socio-economic conditions of people is keeping the nation in a revolutionary situation
n Revolution: relatively rapid major change in the arrangements of society, especially the political system
(1) revolutionary mood - majority of the people have become profoundly discontented with the situation and want radical sociopolitical change
(2) revolutionary situation - in addition, there already exist organized groups of significant strength that are actively pursuing major societal changes, usually entailing a change of the political leaders of that society
(3) revolutionary crisis - one or more of those groups challenging the existing societal arrangements and/or the incumbent leaders has grown strong enough to be plausibly able to overthrow the incumbent leadership and/or change the existing societal arrangements
International Context
n Iran Nuclear Crisis
– US offers to join direct talks with Iran has been followed with agreement among leading members of the Security Council on a package of incentives to encourage Iran to reach agreement on its nuclear programme
– Iran insists it needs until August to assess an international offer of incentives to get it to halt its controversial nuclear programme
– Still no breakthrough from on talks as of Jul 11, 2006
– The stand off, coupled with the instability in Nigeria, has been causing the anxiety over global oil market and increases occupational risks of OFWs in the Middle East
n North Korean Missile Testing
– 12 Apr 2006: meeting aimed at persuading North Korea to return to talks on its nuclear programme fails to resolve the deadlock
– 3 Jul 2006: Washington dismisses a threat by North Korea that it will launch a nuclear strike against the US in the event of an American attack
– 4 Jul 2006: North Korea test-fires at least six missiles, including a long-range Taepodong-2, despite repeated warnings from the international community
n North Korean Missile Testing
– 5 Jul 2006: North Korea test-fires a seventh missile, despite international condemnation of its earlier launches
– North Korea is believed to have more than 800 ballistic missiles, including long-range missiles which could potentially strike the US
– North Korea has been a major source of instability in Asia-Pacific and one of US’ axis of evil; continuous provocation by North Korea could result in armed conflict that would involve US, Japan, China, South Korea and even the Philippines as one of US’ allies
n Israel-Hezbollah War
– Israeli forces have been bombing targets in Lebanon for an eighth day, with at least 40 civilian deaths reported in the south and east
– Lebanon has been under attack from Israel after the Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers whom they refused to release
– the UN warned of a humanitarian disaster as Lebanese flee their homes, with air strikes on roads and bridges hampering efforts to help them
n Israel-Hezbollah War
– Israeli Prime Minister claimed that Hezbollah's capture of two Israeli soldiers was timed to divert attention from Tehran's nuclear programme
– Calls for UN to impose sanctions on Israel were of no avail
– About 230 Lebanese people have been killed since then; the majority of them were civilians; 25 Israelis have died
– Massive Israeli bombing of targets on Lebanese territory has prompted efforts of the Philippine Government to repatriate 30,000 OFWs in Lebanon
n
As of July 25, 2006
Center for Strategic Studies
OUTLINE
n PRESENT SITUATION
(A) Natural Environment
(B) Economic Conditions
(C) Social Conditions
(D) Political Conditions
(E) International Contexts
Natural Environment
n Water Crisis
– 90% of the 99 watershed areas in the country are "hydrologically critical" (DENR)
– Massive destruction of the once productive forested watersheds by loggers-both legal and illegal--and uncontrolled land use from mining, overgrazing, agricultural expansion, and industrialization have contributed to water depletion
– River pollution has added to the country's water problem: the Philippine Urban Sewerage and Sanitation classifies 37 out of 418 rivers in the country as polluted while the rest were seriously polluted
– Areas most affected by the water crisis are: Metro Manila, Metro Cebu, Davao, Baguio, Angeles, Bacolod, Iloilo, Cagayan de Oro and Zamboanga
n Thinning Land Resources
– From 12 million hectares in 1960, the country has only about 5.4 M hectares of forestlands left (DENR)
– Because of deforestation, the Philippines is one of the countries hardest hit by natural disasters (flashfloods and landslides in Quezon and Aurora in 2004)
– Due to poor land use planning, several areas in the country are also prone to soil erosion and mudslides (Barangay Guinsaugon, St. Bernard, Southern Leyte in Feb 2006)
n Natural Hazards: Volcanic Eruptions
– The Philippines is in the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” where volcanic activity and earthquakes are common
– For this year, two volcanoes in the country have been active
– Mt. Bulusan eruption, Jun 2006: although has not caused fatalities (except for one due to respiratory problem) the number of families affected reached 1,114 comprising about 7,691 people
– Mt. Mayon eruption
§ Mayon’s most violent eruption, in 1814, killed more than 1,200 people and buried a town in mud; a 1993 eruption killed 79
§ At present, Mayon’s eruptions is still considered “quiet” but tremors indicate that a hazardous eruption is upcoming
§ some 3,004 families or 15,852 people will be evacuated upon a major eruption of the volcano
Economic Conditions
n Real GNP grew by 5.8% during the 1st quarter of 2006 from 2005 yearend figure of 5.6% (NSCB)
n Real GDP growth rate for the same period also rose by 5.5% from yearend 2005 rate of 5%
n However economic growth is still consumption-driven: 76% of 1st quarter 2006 GDP consists of Personal Consumption Expenditures (NSCB)
n Increase in consumption is still spurred by steady flow of OFW remittances ($11.8 B in 2005)
n Exports are still lacking : trade deficit is at $505 M as of Apr 2006 although it has significantly decreased since Apr 2005 ($867 M)
n Philippines’ external dependence is also manifest in the balance of payments which is still at negative $306 M as of yearend 2005 compared to $104 M deficit in 2004 (NSCB)
n Total outstanding public sector debt, as of Dec 2005, was P5.1 trillion (93.4% of GDP), a decrease of 4.4% from end Dec 2004 debt of P5.3 trillion; 34% of this constitutes domestic and 66% foreign debt (DOF)
n As of Jan 2006, the national government’s outstanding debt stood at P3.96 trillion, rising by 2% from the year before; that means each of the 85 million Filipinos, rich or poor, is burdened with P45,647 of the country’s debts
n Budget deficit also contributes to the high stock of debt: it represented 5.2% of GDP in 2002 (the worst since 1970), but slightly improved in 2004 when it went down to 4.6% of GDP
n From 2005 yearend budget deficit of P146.5 B or 2.7% of GDP, the government has set a lower target at P125B or 2.1% of GDP for 2006, P67B for 2007, and hopes to achieve a balanced budget by 2008
n Although government spending fell from 19.6% of GDP in 2001 to 17.5% in 2005, there is a pressing need for strengthened delivery of social services and for infrastructure that targets the poor and the vulnerable
n In order to meet demand for infrastructure spending, the government aimed to increase revenue collections when it expanded the coverage of VAT and increased the rate to 12% from 10%
n However, tax revenues have been falling short of government targets: revenues from reformed VAT (R-VAT) missed by the government’s estimate of P100 M during the first two months of 2006; and internal revenues fell short by almost P10 B from its target of P79 B as of Apr 2006
n International credit rating firms monitor R-VAT collection performance: while Moody’s has maintained its negative rating outlook on the country, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings have already lifted their outlooks to stable since R-VAT’s implementation in Nov 2005
n Other investment agencies have noted that debt burden remains unsustainable and that country’s growth performance was falling short of making significant inroads into persistent high levels of poverty and unemployment
n Mixed assessments have shown that the Philippine economic fundamentals need to be improved to provide significant economic opportunities especially to the poorest of the population
n For one, oil dependence makes the Philippines one of the more susceptible countries in the region to high global oil prices
n Since 2005, crude oil price has already increased from $49.98 per barrel to $72 per barrel due to tensions in the Middle East and Nigeria (DOE)
n At the domestic market, this translates to a price increase of unleaded gasoline from P28.93 in June 2005 to P41.74 in Jun 2006, and price increase of diesel from P27.26 to P36.24 for the same periods
n The uneven economic growth is manifested in the inability of very many Filipinos to afford basic necessities in life such as food, housing, medicine, job and education
n A survey on hunger revealed that some 2.8 M families in the country experienced having nothing to eat at least once in the past three months, as the hunger level rose to 16.9% in Mar 2006 from 16.7% in Dec 2005 (SWS)
n Although the rate of the increase could be considered insignificant, a 16.7% hunger incidence translates to 14 M people experiencing hunger
n Housing remains a grave problem with a shortage of 4.2 M units as of Oct 2005
n Lack of affordable land and housing options for the poor also means that a significantly large portion of the urban population are forced to live in informal settlements, in conditions that are illegal, insecure and environmentally degrading, and without access to toilets, water supply and electricity
n Filipinos also find basic health care needs expensive and inaccessible
n According to government statistics, 70% of the population has no regular access to lifesaving drugs
n Medicine in the Philippines is one of the most expensive in the world: 5 to 45 times higher than prices of same medicines sold in India and Pakistan
n Officials blame the situation on the pharmaceutical marketing and distribution cartel system controlled by multinational companies
n Health care professionals are also leaving the country in droves: nurses and other medical workers leave the country at the rate of 15,000 a year for better-paying jobs abroad
n From 2000 to 2004, around 5000 Filipino doctors have migrated abroad; since 2003, government-run hospitals lost 400 to 450 physicians to foreign hospitals
n In 2005, 5,000 medical doctors of the 20,000 in the Philippines were studying to be nurses, just to be able to go abroad
n The Philippines has become an exporter of qualified nurses, which has led to a nursing crisis that has already diminished the quality of hospital care and even forced the closure of a number of hospitals
n 62% of Filipinos die without being seen by a doctor or a nurse
n In Metro Manila where more than 70% of all the health facilities in the Philippines are found and 74% of the doctors practice, 59% of the people die without any medical attention
n Unemployment and underemployment rates have increased: unemployment rose from 8.1% in Jan 06 to 8.2% in Apr 06, while underemployment significantly increased from 21.3% to 25.4% (NSO)
n 2.9 M Filipinos are unemployed as of Apr 06 compared to 2.8 M unemployment level in Jan 06
n On the other hand, the number of underemployed increased to 8.4 M in Apr 06 from 6.9 M in Jan 06
n Total labor force in Apr 06 was estimated at 36 M, translating to a labor force participation rate of 64.9%
n Females dominated the population who were not in the labor force with 70.8% while males had a figure of 29.2%
n Among the total of unemployed persons, around 48.5 percent were 15-24 years old while the rest were 25 years old and over
n A PCIJ report paints a vivid picture of the unemployment/underemployment problem:
– Labor groups claim that the job crisis is the most important problem facing the nation today, with 12 M unemployed and underemployed Filipinos, an increase of 2 M in 2 years
– The working-age population is growing by 1.3 M every year
n A PCIJ report paints a vivid picture of the unemployment/underemployment problem:
– In contrast to the 2.38 jobs generated in 2005 announced on PGMA’s 6th State of the Nation Address (SONA), Alliance of Progressive Labor (APL) economist claims that only 700,000 jobs in 2005 and 780,000 jobs in the first 2 quarters of 2006 were generated
– Actual employment generation was halfway the government target of 1.5 M jobs every year and below the 1.3 M increase in the labor force
n A PCIJ report paints a vivid picture of the unemployment/underemployment problem:
– More than half of the jobs created in 2005 have been short-term and contractual or seasonal in nature (tourism, housing, infrastructure)
– 59% of working age population are employed in jobs that are less permanent, part-time, low waged or unpaid, or low-skilled
– Underemployment rate is at an 18-year high – it rose dramatically from 17.5% in 2001 to 25.4% in 2006 which is reflective of the kind of jobs that were generated over the period of time
n According to the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE), there were 4.8 million jobs left unfilled due to mismatch between skills required by industries and skills possessed by applicants
n This puts to question the quality and relevance of education to the employment needs of the country
n Out of every 100 Filipino school-children entering first grade, only 68 percent will reach grade 6; only 66 percent of them will graduate and complete their elementary education (NSO)
n Only 66 out of 100 Filipino students finish elementary schooling, just 58 of these enter high school and only 43 are able to finish secondary education
n Of the 43 students who complete high school, only 23 go on to college and only 14 graduate with a university degree
n One out of every three Filipinos between the ages of six and 24 has never received any formal education
n Functional illiteracy rate is 14%: one in 10 Filipinos aged between 10 and 64 cannot read or write at all and two in 19 Filipinos are “functionally illiterate,” which means they lack numerical skills and cannot perform addition, subtraction, multiplication or division
n In order to achieve an ideal ratio of 45 students per classroom, the government needs to build 45,000 new classrooms (DepEd)
n At present, to cope with shortage of classrooms, the government implements the "double-shifting" scheme among public schools
n There is also a shortage of more than 10,000 teachers in public schools
n The shortages can be attributed not only to the migration of teachers abroad but also to the transfer of private school students to public schools due to high cost of tuition fees
n Some 17.8 million students this year enrolled in government-run elementary and high schools, up by 5 percent over last year; only 2.2 million students enrolled in private schools
n On the other hand, teachers who have remained in the country are also questionable in terms of competence
n Only 25 percent of education graduates pass the Licensure Examinations for Teachers (LET): 25.4 percent for secondary school teachers and 24.1 percent for elementary school teachers (NSCB)
n Aside from hiring teachers, the Department of Education (DepEd) also needs to train them to provide quality education to the youth
n There is a need to look beyond aggregate economic data to grasp the real economic situation of the people
n Economic growth has relied heavily on consumption and Overseas Filipino Worker (OFW) remittances; instead of increased investment and production
n Meeting the budget deficit target is crucial in improving investor confidence in the country; however it should not be done at the expense of much needed spending on infrastructure, health and education, which should be the real priorities and determinants of wise investment
n The increase in hunger and unemployment incidence shows that despite the rise in GDP, economic growth has not provided significant opportunities and power for the larger part of the population to afford basic necessities
Social Conditions
n National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) figures released last 25 Jan 2005 showed that about 3.966 million families, almost a quarter (24.7 %) of the country’s total families, were living below the poverty line, with the annual per capita poverty threshold set at P12,267
n NSCB reports that of 2003, national poverty incidence was at 30 %
n According to 6th SONA: poverty incidence among Filipino families saw a decrease of 3 percentage points from the 27.5% revised estimate for 2000 down to 24.7% in 2003
n According to the 2003 Family Income and Expenditure Survey of the National Statistics Office (FIES), released on 12 Jan 2006: out of 16.48 M families,
– some 300,000 have annual income below P20,000
– some 3.1 M have annual income within income bracket of P20,000 to P49,999
– some 5.2 M have annual income within the income bracket of P50,000 to P99,999
– some 7.3M have incomes ranging from P100,000 to P499,999
– only 545,000 families have incomes of P500,000 and above
n However, the average income of the richest 10% of the population is 20 times higher than the poorest 10 % (2003 FIES)
n Poverty incidence in the poorest provinces of the country is much higher than the national average: in 2003, the poorest province of Zamboanga del Norte had 64.6 % while the tenth poorest province, Lanao del Norte, had 46.5 % of the population below poverty line
n BASIC SECTORS: ISSUES
– Labor
§ Clamor for higher wages to keep up with the unabated rise in prices of petroleum products and the resulting price increases for basic goods and services
§ Many companies are flagrantly skirting the labor code provision that after six months of service, a worker, whatever her/his hiring status, is automatically considered a regular worker
§ Contractualization further depresses the already very low wages of workers and decreases worker’s self-esteem
– Peasants
§ Although the number of farms increased by 4.6 % (to 4.8 M farm lands in 2002, from 4.6 M in 1991), the country’s total farm area decreased as average farm size became smaller from 2.84 hectares in 1980; 2.2 hectares per farm in 1991; 2 hectares in 2002 – due to conversion of farmlands to residential and commercial purposes (NSO)
§ Decrease in the share of agricultural production to the GDP: in 2003, agriculture share to total production was at 19.8 %; it has further decreased to 19.7 % in 2004; and 19.1 % in 2005
n BASIC SECTORS: ISSUES
– Peasants
§ Decline in agricultural productivity: by the 1990s, agricultural imports were 50 % greater than agricultural exports
§ Inability to meet global competitiveness: poor performance of Philippine agricultural sector is due more to weaknesses in the policy and institutional frameworks rather than external market factors
§ Lack of investments in agriculture: under-spending in agricultural research and development
§ Lack of mechanisms connecting agricultural products to key industries: failure to produce higher end products that would realize bigger profits for the peasants
§ Lack of adequate subsidy to the farmers: indebtedness of farmers and lack of access to affordable capital and its failure to compete with foreign crops which are cheaper and of better quality can be attributed to the government’s failure to adequately subsidize farmers
– Fisherfolk
§ Philippine fisheries systems are facing collapse or are generally overfished
§ Poverty among municipal fisherfolks: a commercial fishworker's average daily share from a commercial fishing vessel's catch is between P50 and P120, while some 50% to 75% of the net gains of a commercial fishing vessel's catch goes to the operator or owner
§ Liberalization of the fisheries sector: municipal fishers face worsening resource depletion, loss of access to resources and competition from commercial and industrial fishing vessels; many of the larger vessels are highly subsidized and come from developed countries which have bilateral relations with developing countries
– Transport
§ Diesel fuel, which is the most commonlyused fuel by public transportations, has become very expensive
§ Increases in the prices of fuel (gasoline and diesel) and its resultant increase in the price of prime commodities are causing hardships to many Filipinos
§ Securing a license, or a franchise to operate a public utility have become very expensive and very stringent documentations and regulations forces drivers and operators to fall prey to corrupt transport officials in order to have one
n Poverty is experienced by all of the basic and related sectors of the society
n The failure of the government to address the concerns of the basic and related sectors of the society, including the provision for adequate mechanisms to improve working conditions of the basic sectors have left them helpless against capitalist policies and neo-liberal rules set by GATT/WTO
n Despite the much bragged rapid economic growth at the global and regional levels, the capitalist and neo-liberal economic platforms reinforce poverty and deprive the basic and related sectors of the Philippine society of the opportunity to empower themselves and uplift their socio-economic conditions
n POLITICAL STALEMATE
– Unpopular Macapagal - Arroyo administration
§ Stalled Charter Change initiatives
– Unpopular, weak and fragmented opposition
§ Unable to overthrow or otherwise remove the Macapagal - Arroyo administration
§ Foiled destabilization efforts
Political Conditions
Macapagal – Arroyo administration:
- main groups in the administration
- Lakas – Centrist Democrats (Lakas – CD) - Liberal Party – Atienza wing
- Kabalikat ng Mamamayang Pilipino (KAMPI) - PDSP
- Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC ) - APEC, Buhay, and some other party-list groups
- has control of the House of Representatives and most of local government units, but not of the Senate, which has a strong opposition presence and in which some of the nominally administration Senators align with the opposition on many issues
(1) The opposition:
Main groupings in the opposition
- “parliamentary” political opposition
- CPP-1968 – NPA – NDF
- some military and police elements
- dominates the Philippine Senate
(a) “parliamentary” political opposition
(a) traditional opposition
§ Liberal Party – Drilon wing
§ Partido ng Demokratikong Pilipino – Laban
§ Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP)– Angara wing
§ Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP) – Lacson wing
§ Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP)
§ Nacionalista Party
§ CIBAC (and Bangon Pilipinas)
§ Reporma
§ “Hyatt 10” and allies
(b) ideological parliamentary opposition
- Reaffirmist Marxist-Leninists (Bayan Muna, Anakpawis, Gabriela) (controlled by the clandestine Reaffirmist Marxist- Leninist opposition)
- Rejectionist Marxist-Leninists (SANLAKAS, Partido Manggagawa, Anak Mindanao)
- AKBAYAN
-AKBAYAN, SANLAKAS, Partido Manggagawa, & Bangon Pilipinas are the main elements in Laban
ng Masa.
(2) clandestine Reaffirmist Marxist- Leninist opposition
- Communist Party of the Philippines – Marxism – Leninism – Mao Zedong Thought (CPP-1968)
- New People’s Army
- National Democratic Front
n military and police elements involved in pro-opposition partisan regime change effort
(a) Para sa Bayan
- headed by Brig. Gen. D. Lim
- other important figures: Col. A. Querubin,
PCSupt M. Franco
- mainly involving elements of the Scout Rangers, the Marines, the PNP SAF
(b) some elements of the Magdalo group
- headed by former Senator Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan
- mainly young AFP officers
- organized in the Katipunan ng mga Anak ng Bayan (KAB) and the Makabayang Kawal
Pilipino, also known as Mamamayang Kaisa sa Pakikibaka (MKP)
- formed alliance with the CPP-1968 – NPA, through formal negotiations with the Military
Commission of the CPP
n Efforts to break political statement: Administration
– People’s Initiative difficult to pass because:
§ Legal opposition to signature verification
§ Pattern of SC decisions on EO 464, CPR and PP 1017 not in favor
– Constituent Assembly impossible without bargaining with the Senate
– Many unaligned groups and individuals prefer Constitutional Convention as the manner of Charter Change, over administration-backed Charter Change moves
n Efforts to break political statement: Opposition
- Persistent efforts at destabilization and ouster of P G M-A:
- Recapture of five escaped Magdalo soldiers plotting to sabotage the State of the Nation Address (SONA) of the President on July 24, 2006
- Recovered from the safehouse of the Magdalo escapees were names of politicians and businessmen supporting the coup plotters
- Continued manhunt for Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan, leader of the latter group of military rebels
n Efforts to break political statement: Opposition
- Persistent efforts at destabilization and ouster of P G M-A:
- Testimony of former Ambassador Roy Señeres: mentions the involvement of politicians and businessmen such as Oscar Orbos, Renato de Villa, Senator Panfilo Lacson, Antonio “Tony Boy” Cojuangco, Felipe F. Cruz, and Iñigo Zobel in the foiled coup attempt on Feb 24, 2006
- 1st Lt. Lawrence San Juan has reaffirmed allegiance to the government and repented that the pursuit of his goals led him to negotiate with the CPP-NPA
n Efforts to break political statement: Opposition
- Opposition to Charter Change by Constituent Assembly and by People’s Initiative
- Filing of impeachment complaints against PGMA:
- Five impeachment complaints filed in Congress since Jun 2006
n “UNALIGNED” FORCES
– One Voice
§ Non-partisan citizen’s group which advocates a 5-point proposal to end the prevailing “political impasse”:
– Halting the “legally flawed” people’s initiative to amend the Constitution by appealing to the public, the President and the proponents of the project
– Holding of 2007 elections as scheduled to serve as an indirect referendum on the term of President Arroyo
n “UNALIGNED” FORCES
– One Voice
§ 5-point proposal to end the prevailing “political impasse”:
– Immediate initiation of electoral reforms
– Institution of social reform agenda
– Initiation of a collective effort to rebuild the trustworthiness of the country’s democratic institutions
n “UNALIGNED” FORCES
– One Voice
§ Key Personalities: Christian Monsod, Solita Monsod; Alfredo Benipayo; Manuel Quezon III; Bishops Oscar Cruz, Deogracias Iñiguez, Ramon Arguelles, Antonio Ledesma, Leonardo Legaspi, Orlando Quevedo and Florentino Lavarias; Raul Concepcion; Rafael Alunan; 1986 Constitutional Commission members Fely Aquino-Arroyo, Florangel Braid and Ricardo Romulo; and NAMFREL officials Maria Corazon Akol, Baltazar Endriga, Ricardo Guevara and Augusto Lagman
n “UNALIGNED” FORCES
– CBCP Pastoral Statement on July 10, 2006:
§ Elections in 2007 must not be cancelled
§ Constitutional Convention for Charter Change
§ Not inclined to favor the impeachment process because it is an unproductive political exercise
§ Calls for thorough reform of the COMELEC to restore trust in electoral process
§ Denounces extra-judicial killings by both
– alleged ultra-rightist elements in the military
– insurgents in relation to agaw-armas operations, punishing refusal or failure to pay a revolutionary tax, punishing “blood-debt to the people,” or intervention in rivalries among traditional politicians
n Extra-judicial killings: complex situation
– “Militants” (ambivalent media term for NDF- linked persons and groups)
§ Around 20 murdered from April up to present nationwide; 228 “militant” activists assassinated since 2001
– Media practitioners
§ The country is now known as the second most dangerous place for journalists after Iraq, with 79 journalists killed since 1986
§ Extra-judicial killings: complex situation
- Classification of victims
§ Persons perceived as members of groups engaged in armed rebellion against the government
§ Low-profile persons present in rebel formations or encampments who are injured in combat situations
§ Former members of rebel groups movements who have repudiated or left these movements
§ Persons who have helped the government in internal security operations, such as judges, informants
§ Extra-judicial killings: complex situation
- Classification of victims (continued)
§ Members of competitor political formations
§ Media practitioners who have offended groups or individuals in relation to political matters
§ Media practitioners who have offended groups or individuals in relation to personal matters
§ Miscellaneous personal enemies
§ Suspected criminals
n Extra-judicial killings: complex situation
- Suspected perpetrators
§ Rogue military and rogue police
§ Paramilitary forces or auxiliaries of the police
§ Relatives and friends of victims of killings by rebel forces
§ Reaffirmist Marxist-Leninists
§ Rejectionist Marxist-Leninists
§ Extreme rightist elements
§ Destabilizing politicians
§ Personal enemies of those subjected to violence
§ Extra-judicial killings: complex situation
- Suspected perpetrators (continued)
– Landowners resisting agrarian reform
– Drug traffickers
– Organized crime syndicates
– Pirates
– Mercenaries (“guns for hire”)
n Comprehensive Approach Against Insurgency
– Government, on top of previous extra-budgetary releases of P10 B, and 10-year multiyear budgeting, has released an initial amount of P1 B for the AFP to irreversibly degrade the Communist insurgency in chosen critical areas within two years
– Offensive against the NPA is a combination of security operations directed at armed adversaries, development directed at poor communities and governance initiatives directed at local governments
– The comprehensive approach includes military, political, legal, and developmental elements, and human rights education
n Comprehensive Approach Against Insurgency
- Offensives will also target communist sympathizers and financiers who give comfort to the enemy including businessmen who pay revolutionary taxes
- Interagency task forces are being established at various levels to monitor the collateral damage from the offensives; the government aims for zero civilian casualties
n PGMA’s Vision of First World Philippines
(State of the Nation Address, 24 July 2006)
- Prompting efforts to expedite the resolution of the communist insurgency is the need to establish an insurgency-free Philippines in order to attain First World nation in 20 years
- To do this, PGMA’s economic plan has three phases:
- fiscal prudence and improving revenues
- greater investments in jobs, infrastructure and education
- building up of natural assets of each region and grouping clusters into super regions
n PGMA’s Vision of First World Philippines
– Five super regions:
§ North Luzon - the agri-business quadrangle; would cover regions 1, 2 and Cordillera Administrative Region including Aurora and Nueva Ecija
§ Metro Luzon - urban beltway; would cover regions 3 (except Aurora and Nueva Ecija), 4-A, and Metro Manila
§ Central Luzon – would focus on tourism and cover regions 4-B, 5, 6, 7, and 8
n PGMA’s Vision of First World Philippines
– Five super regions:
§ Mindanao – would focus on agri-business and cover regions 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
§ Cyber-corridor - runs the length of the super-regions from Baguio to Cebu to Davao
– The enlarged groupings of the regions would boost economic and market potentials beyond what each region can generate, with economies of scale, synergies and complementation that will be more attractive to investors
n To be world-class, the Philippines will invest in five comprehensive strategies for global competitiveness:
§ Make food plentiful and affordable to keep our labor cost globally competitive
§ Reduce the cost of electricity to make our factories regionally competitive
§ Modernize infrastructure at least cost to efficiently transport goods and people
§ Mobilize, upgrade and disseminate knowledge and technologies for productivity
§ Reduce red tape in all agencies to cut business costs
n PGMA considers the outmoded Constitution as the most prohibitive red tape
n PGMA announces that there is now funds for constitutional and electoral changes; for it is time to end the dominance of imperial Manila and give more opportunities to the provinces and the people
n PGMA also expresses that a Constitutional Change will result in a better way to do politics so that those who lose elections do not make the country pay for their frustrated ambitions and that those who win the nation's mandate to govern can work without delay and whimsical obstruction
n The political impasse that impedes efforts to radically improve socio-economic conditions of people is keeping the nation in a revolutionary situation
n Revolution: relatively rapid major change in the arrangements of society, especially the political system
(1) revolutionary mood - majority of the people have become profoundly discontented with the situation and want radical sociopolitical change
(2) revolutionary situation - in addition, there already exist organized groups of significant strength that are actively pursuing major societal changes, usually entailing a change of the political leaders of that society
(3) revolutionary crisis - one or more of those groups challenging the existing societal arrangements and/or the incumbent leaders has grown strong enough to be plausibly able to overthrow the incumbent leadership and/or change the existing societal arrangements
International Context
n Iran Nuclear Crisis
– US offers to join direct talks with Iran has been followed with agreement among leading members of the Security Council on a package of incentives to encourage Iran to reach agreement on its nuclear programme
– Iran insists it needs until August to assess an international offer of incentives to get it to halt its controversial nuclear programme
– Still no breakthrough from on talks as of Jul 11, 2006
– The stand off, coupled with the instability in Nigeria, has been causing the anxiety over global oil market and increases occupational risks of OFWs in the Middle East
n North Korean Missile Testing
– 12 Apr 2006: meeting aimed at persuading North Korea to return to talks on its nuclear programme fails to resolve the deadlock
– 3 Jul 2006: Washington dismisses a threat by North Korea that it will launch a nuclear strike against the US in the event of an American attack
– 4 Jul 2006: North Korea test-fires at least six missiles, including a long-range Taepodong-2, despite repeated warnings from the international community
n North Korean Missile Testing
– 5 Jul 2006: North Korea test-fires a seventh missile, despite international condemnation of its earlier launches
– North Korea is believed to have more than 800 ballistic missiles, including long-range missiles which could potentially strike the US
– North Korea has been a major source of instability in Asia-Pacific and one of US’ axis of evil; continuous provocation by North Korea could result in armed conflict that would involve US, Japan, China, South Korea and even the Philippines as one of US’ allies
n Israel-Hezbollah War
– Israeli forces have been bombing targets in Lebanon for an eighth day, with at least 40 civilian deaths reported in the south and east
– Lebanon has been under attack from Israel after the Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers whom they refused to release
– the UN warned of a humanitarian disaster as Lebanese flee their homes, with air strikes on roads and bridges hampering efforts to help them
n Israel-Hezbollah War
– Israeli Prime Minister claimed that Hezbollah's capture of two Israeli soldiers was timed to divert attention from Tehran's nuclear programme
– Calls for UN to impose sanctions on Israel were of no avail
– About 230 Lebanese people have been killed since then; the majority of them were civilians; 25 Israelis have died
– Massive Israeli bombing of targets on Lebanese territory has prompted efforts of the Philippine Government to repatriate 30,000 OFWs in Lebanon
n
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